<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><xml><records><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Context Scenarios in Long-Term Defense Planning</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Information &amp; Security: An International Journal</style></secondary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2009</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2009</style></date></pub-dates></dates><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">23</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">62-72</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Recently, a team of Bulgarian analysts proposed a novel long-term planning methodology that envisions a scenario-based, concept-driven, and capa­bilities-oriented planning process intended to provide for robustness in an uncertain security and force development environment. The methodology uses two types of scenarios – context scenarios (or “alternative futures”) and situational scenarios. This article presents a process for designing context scenarios and a summary in­formation on the scenarios developed for use in Bulgaria’s long-term planning process. The proposed approach to the development of context scenarios involves five distinct steps – preparation, strategic base analysis, analysis of the characteris­tics of the future, definition of national security interests’ zones, and development and analysis of context scenarios. A specialized software tool called Intelligent Scenario Computer Interface Program Morphological Analysis/ System Analysis (I-SCIP-MA-SA) was developed to support both the morphological and system analy­ses within the process.
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