<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><xml><records><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Todor Tagarev</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Gueorgui Stankov</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Lozan Bizov</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Interactive Simulations in Support of Decision Making on Defence Resource Allocation</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Information &amp; Security: An International Journal</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">budgeting</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">defence capa­bilities</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">defence institution building.</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">defence policy</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">force structure</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Gaming</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">long-term defence planning</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Programming</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Uncertainty</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2009</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2009</style></date></pub-dates></dates><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">23</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">129-140</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%"> This article describes the approach and the experience of the Defence and Force Management Department at the “G.S. Rakovski” Defence and Staff Col­lege in conducting interactive simulations that support decision making on force structure, force development programs, and the respective allocation of resources. The primary purpose of the simulation is to educate students, mostly senior military and civilian MOD personnel, in the intricacies of defence planning in a changing environment, and to provide ‘hands on’ experience in defence programming and budgeting. In addition, it allows exploring the space of potential policy alternatives, force structuring and programming decisions, thus serving as a powerful decision support </style></abstract><issue><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1</style></issue></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>47</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Todor Tagarev</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Petya Ivanova</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Expanded Capability Portfolios to Steer Force Development under Strategic Uncertainty</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Specialist Meeting on Capability-Based Long Term Planning</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">adaptiveness</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">agility</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">capability portfolio</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">investment management</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">long-term defence planning</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">strategic uncertainty</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2008</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">18-19 Nov 2008</style></date></pub-dates></dates><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Oslo</style></pub-location><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">The paper reflects a methodology for long-term defence planning, developed by one of the authors at the request of the Bulgarian Ministry of Defence in the period July-November 2007. The methodology builds on good practices in long-term defence planning and capabilities-based planning in an attempt to make the force development process more sensitive and adaptive to significant changes in the environment (security, political, socio-economic, technological, etc.) while preserving the transparency of resource allocation decisions. The underlying approach combines two recent developments. The first one calls for the use of two levels of scenarios—‘mission scenarios,’ or ‘planning situations’ in NATO parlance, and ‘context scenarios,’ known also as ‘alternative futures’—as a means to represent strategic uncertainty in the force development environment. The second one is based on an expanded definition of ‘capability.’ We distinguish three types of capabilities:
A.	Capabilities to perform operational and management tasks, the operational capabilities being in the focus of long-term planning so far;
B.	Capabilities to shape the security environment, e.g. regional security cooperation, assistance to other countries, etc., and 
C.	Capabilities for strategic adaptiveness, including analysis of trends and forecasting changes in the force development environment, technology monitoring, R&amp;D, concept development and experimentation, maintenance of mobilization capacity, etc. 
Since the decisions in the long-term planning process are made under constraints (although constraints may be more or less loose), all types of capabilities are thus placed on equal footing in the competition for resources, while the use of context scenarios allows to rationalize the balancing between type A capabilities and the investment in shaping and strategic adaptiveness.</style></abstract></record></records></xml>