<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><xml><records><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>47</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Petya Ivanova</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Todor Tagarev</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Challenges and Opportunities for Network Intrusion Detection in a Big Data Environment</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">DIGILIENCE 2020</style></secondary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2020</style></year></dates><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">&lt;p&gt;Advanced data storage and processing technologies allow to accumulate logs, network flows and system events from various sources in terabytes of heterogeneous data. This paper presents the state of the art in data pre-processing, feature selection, and the application of a variety of machine learning methods for intrusion detection. It outlines the main challenges in big data analytics and the opportunities provided by combining the outputs of several methods to increase the accuracy of detection and decrease the number of false alarms. The authors propose an architecture of an intrusion detection system combining offline machine learning and dynamic processing of data streams.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;This paper is included in the program of the Second Scientific Conference &amp;quot;Digital Transformation, Cyber Security and Resilience &lt;a href=&quot;https://digilience.org/content/digilience-2020-program&quot;&gt;DIGILIENCE 2020&lt;/a&gt; and will be published in the post-conference volume.&lt;/p&gt;</style></abstract></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>27</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Todor Tagarev</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Petya Ivanova</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Nataly Ivanova</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Bulgaria: Information on Capabilities, Organisations, Policies, and Legislation in Crisis Management and Disaster Response</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">IT4Sec Reports</style></secondary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2015</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">June 2015</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">128</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Institute of Information and Communication Technologies</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Sofia</style></pub-location><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Natural disasters in Bulgaria are on the increase. For just four months—from June to October 2014—heavy floods affected half of Bulgaria’s regions and took 18 casualties on five different occasions. By the end of October, the total number of disasters since the start of the year exceeded 600, including train crashes and explosions in ammunition factories, the most recent one killing 15 people. 
The types of challenges faced come in sharp contrast with the traditional concerns and the approach to protection of the population prior to WWII and during the Cold war. After several waves of reorganisation of the former militarised system for civil defence, the civil protection units and their management bodies are now part of General Directorate “Fire Safety and Civil Protection” (FSCP) within the Ministry of the Interior.
The main legal act regulating their activities is the Disaster Protection Law. A separate concept does not exist at current. The Disaster Protection Law reflects currently prevailing conceptual views on crisis management and disaster response.  A number of strategies and executive regulations complement the law in regard to disaster prevention, the functioning of volunteers and volunteer organisations, consultative bodies, mid-term programmes, annual implementation plans, etc. Crisis preparedness and response need to adhere to a number of other laws, e.g. on the Ministry of the Interior, on the environmental protection, on the waters, on the regulation of territories, etc. 
The central executive power continues to play the key role, primarily via the MOI General Directorate “Fire Safety and Civil Protection.” The regional and municipal authorities have their own disaster protection plans, and each region has a local FSCP directorate. Along with other ministries and central executive agencies, critical infrastructure operators, other trade companies, volunteers, health services, and the armed forces, they perform their crisis management duties in a Unified Rescue Service. 
FSCP provides points of contact for international co-operation, including humanitarian aid, engagement for disaster response and relief, protection of European critical infrastructures, etc. 
FSCP has about 8,000 personnel and is sustained through the budget of the Ministry of the Interior. Elements of the monitoring and early warning system are maintained through the budget of respective ministries, agencies, and institutes. Some equipment, infrastructure and training programmes are financed as part of international projects, including EU structural funds. In addition, the Joint Commission for Restoration and Relief (JCRR) to the Council of Ministers has an annual budget of 70-90 mln. BGN, or approximately 0.1 percent of the GDP, to finance “the prevention, containment, and overcoming the consequence of disasters.” 
Bulgaria has some crisis management capabilities of potential interest to the EU and other MSs, such as medium search and rescue units for urban environments, medium CBRN units, and land units for fighting forest fires, as well as the FSCP training range in the town of Montana. Mobile medical teams of the Military Medical Academy are regularly deployed abroad in disaster response operations. At the time of writing of this report, a Centre for Crisis Management and Disaster Response in Sofia, pending the accreditation from the North-Atlantic Council, will be declared NATO Centre of Excellence.
</style></abstract></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>27</ref-type><contributors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">България: Способности, организация, политики и законодателство за управление на кризи и реагиране при бедствия</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">IT4Sec Reports</style></secondary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2015</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Юни 2015</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">128</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Институт по информационни и комуникационни технологии</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">София</style></pub-location><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Докладът представя основните рискове за населението, свързани с природни бедствия и промишлени аварии и преобладаващите към момента концептуални възгледи за кризисното управление, отразени в Закона за защита при бедствия. Централната изпълнителна власт играе основна роля в организационно отношение чрез Главна дирекция &quot;Пожарна безопасност и защита на населението&quot; на МВР. Единната спасителна система е основа на кризисното управление в страната, като осигурява готовност и реагиране на областни и общински власти, други министерства и агенции, оператори на критична инфраструктура, други търговски дружества, здравни заведения, доброволци и въоръжените сили. Докладът представя информация за равнището на финансиране и способностите на страната за кризисно управление, вкл. способности от потенциален интерес за ЕС и страни-членки.</style></abstract></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Todor Tagarev</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Petya Ivanova</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Analytical support to foresighting EU roles as a Global Security Actor</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Information &amp; Security: An International Journal</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Alternative futures</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">context scenario</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">participatory foresight</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">scenario design</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Security foresight</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Uncertainty</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2013</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2013</style></date></pub-dates></dates><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">29</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">21-33</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Making decisions on major investments, including investments in security research, requires good grasp of the future, which by definition is uncertain. This paper presents the analytical process, methods, and tools, including the DSTO Scenario Analysis Tool Suite, used in the elaboration and selection of a set of context scenarios and possible new roles for EU as a global actor based on the wider Petersberg tasks. Results of this exploratory process within the FP7 FOCUS project are intended to derive suggestions for the EU’s security research planning. The conclusion emphasises the critical importance of providing rigorous analytical support, in particular when security foresight involves subject matter experts that are not part of a dedicated research team.</style></abstract><issue><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1</style></issue><section><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">21</style></section></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Todor Tagarev</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Venelin Georgiev</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Petya Ivanova</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Analytical Support to Critical Infrastructure Protection Policy and Investment Decision-Making</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Information &amp; Security: An International Journal</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">CASoS</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">CIP</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">complex adaptive systems</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Decision Support</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">ECI</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">EU Directive 114/2008</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">interdependency</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">knowledge management</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">knowledge portal</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">method</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">security policy</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">tool</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2012</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2012</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1</style></number><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">28</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">13-20</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Critical infrastructures are complex, interlinked socio-technical systems, with impact often crossing state borders. Their protection involves governments and business organisations, interacting in the application of a broad variety of measures to provide safety and security while investing a considerable amount of public and private resources. This paper examines the challenge of making respective policy and investment decisions transparent, and a sample of methods and tools used to facilitate decision making. It also calls for contributions to a knowledge portal on security and safety of critical infrastructures. </style></abstract><issue><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1</style></issue></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>6</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Todor Tagarev</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Valeri Ratchev</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Venelin Georgiev</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Petya Ivanova</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Lozan Bizov</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Methodology for Planning Wartime Defence Capabilities</style></title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2012</style></year></dates><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Centre for Security and Defence Management, IICT-BAS</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Sofia</style></pub-location><isbn><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">978-954-91700-4-7</style></isbn><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Todor Tagarev</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Petya Ivanova</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Modelling Extreme Events for the Purposes of Security Foresight</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Radioelectronic and Computer Systems</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">agent models</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Black Swan theory</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Catastrophe Loss Models</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">complexity studies</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">dynamic modelling</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Extreme Value Theory</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">planning.</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">security policy</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2012</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">May 2012</style></date></pub-dates></dates><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%"> Radioelectronic and Computer Systems 7(59)</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Sevastopol, Ukraine</style></pub-location><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">253-259</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">The risk management approach is used increasingly in modern security planning. In this approach, planners attempt to assess the likelihood of an event and the potential loss if the event occurs, and then to select certain measures that minimise an integral criteria of risk over some set of events. However, certain events of low probability but high potential impact, referred to as ‘extreme’ or ‘catastrophic’ events, need to be treated dif-ferently than those with a low potential loss and a high likelihood of occurring. This paper presents a brief overview of six ‘methods’ that have been used in addressing security-related risk management tasks—extreme value theory, catastrophe loss models, black swan theory, dynamic modelling, agent models, and complexity studies—and provides examples. It presents a summary on areas of implementation and underlines the limita-tions of established risk management approaches.</style></abstract><issue><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">59</style></issue></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>27</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Todor Tagarev</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Valeri Ratchev</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Petya Ivanova</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Framework for Analysis of Potential EU Roles in the Comprehensive Approach</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">IT4Sec Reports</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">driver dimension</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">foresight</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">IT4Sec reports</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">security environment</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">structural constraints</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2011</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2011</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">88</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Institute of Information and Communication Technologies</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Sofia</style></pub-location><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">IT4Sec Reports 88 presents the CSDM input to Focus working package 3.1. It identifies principal dimensions for describing EU roles in the comprehensive approach: (1) Actors; (2) Instruments; (3) Goals and Objectives in supporting non-EU member states; (4) Strategies; and (5) Mission Roles. Secondly, it provides an overview of recent advances in the EU understanding and development of the comprehensive approach. Third, it presents analysis of the structural conditions for EU decision-making and respective strategies. The final section of the report outlines the main drivers for the further development and implementation of the comprehensive approach. Abstracts of recent specialised publications are included in an Annex to this report. </style></abstract></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>27</ref-type><contributors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Потенциални роли на ЕС във всеобхватния подход: Рамка за анализ</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">IT4Sec Reports</style></secondary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2011</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">септември 2011</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">88</style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Институт по информационни и комуникационни технологии</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">София</style></pub-location><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Докладът представя изследователските резултати на ЦМСО по работен пакет 3.1 на проект FOCUS. В доклада са идентифицирани основни измерения за описание на ролите на Европейския съюз в прилагането на всеобхватния подход: (1) Действащи лица; (2) Инструменти; (3) Цели в подпомагането на страни извън ЕС; (4) Стратегии; и (5) Роли в мисии, систематизирани са развитията на разбирането за всеобхватния подход в ЕС, анализирани са структурните условия за взимане на съответни решения и са представени основните драйвери на бъдещото развитие и прилагане на всеобхватния подход от ЕС. В анекс са включени резюмета на последни специализирани публикации по темата. </style></abstract></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>27</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Petya Ivanova</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Technical Evaluation Report</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Analytical Support to Defence Transformation</style></secondary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2010</style></year></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">RTO-MP-SAS-081 </style></number><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">NATO RTA</style></publisher><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Paris</style></pub-location><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>10</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Todor Tagarev</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Petya Ivanova</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Classic, Modern, and Post-modern Approaches to Making Security Strategy</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">First International Seminar with Discussion on Security Policy </style></secondary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2009</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">18 September</style></date></pub-dates></dates><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Bulgaria</style></publisher><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">7</style></volume><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><num-vols><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">7-17 </style></num-vols></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>47</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Todor Tagarev</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Petya Ivanova</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Classic, Modern, and Post-Modern Approaches to Making Security Strategy</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">First International Seminar with Discussion on Security Policy</style></secondary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2009</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">September 2009</style></date></pub-dates></dates><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Varna, Bulgaria</style></pub-location><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">7-17</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>10</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Todor Tagarev</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Petya Ivanova</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Classic, Modern, and Post-Modern Approaches to Making Security Strategy</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">First International Seminar with Discussion on Security Policy (Security-2009)</style></secondary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2009</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">18 Sept. 2009</style></date></pub-dates></dates><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Bulgaria</style></pub-location><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>47</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Todor Tagarev</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Petya Ivanova</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">CLASSIC, MODERN, AND POST-MODERN APPROACHES TO MAKING SECURITY STRATEGY</style></title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2009</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">09/2009</style></date></pub-dates></dates><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>47</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Todor Tagarev</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Petya Ivanova</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Expanded Capability Portfolios to Steer Force Development under Strategic Uncertainty</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Specialist Meeting on Capability-Based Long Term Planning</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">adaptiveness</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">agility</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">capability portfolio</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">investment management</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">long-term defence planning</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">strategic uncertainty</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2008</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">18-19 Nov 2008</style></date></pub-dates></dates><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Oslo</style></pub-location><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">The paper reflects a methodology for long-term defence planning, developed by one of the authors at the request of the Bulgarian Ministry of Defence in the period July-November 2007. The methodology builds on good practices in long-term defence planning and capabilities-based planning in an attempt to make the force development process more sensitive and adaptive to significant changes in the environment (security, political, socio-economic, technological, etc.) while preserving the transparency of resource allocation decisions. The underlying approach combines two recent developments. The first one calls for the use of two levels of scenarios—‘mission scenarios,’ or ‘planning situations’ in NATO parlance, and ‘context scenarios,’ known also as ‘alternative futures’—as a means to represent strategic uncertainty in the force development environment. The second one is based on an expanded definition of ‘capability.’ We distinguish three types of capabilities:
A.	Capabilities to perform operational and management tasks, the operational capabilities being in the focus of long-term planning so far;
B.	Capabilities to shape the security environment, e.g. regional security cooperation, assistance to other countries, etc., and 
C.	Capabilities for strategic adaptiveness, including analysis of trends and forecasting changes in the force development environment, technology monitoring, R&amp;D, concept development and experimentation, maintenance of mobilization capacity, etc. 
Since the decisions in the long-term planning process are made under constraints (although constraints may be more or less loose), all types of capabilities are thus placed on equal footing in the competition for resources, while the use of context scenarios allows to rationalize the balancing between type A capabilities and the investment in shaping and strategic adaptiveness.</style></abstract></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Petya Ivanova</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Todor Tagarev</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Multiagent Modelling of Critical Infrastructures</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Military Journal</style></secondary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2006</style></year></dates><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">113</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">97-115</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><section><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1</style></section></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Petya Ivanova</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Securing Cyberspace</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Information &amp; Security: An International Journal</style></secondary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2006</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2006</style></date></pub-dates></dates><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">18</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">5-10</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Todor Tagarev</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Petya Ivanova</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Developing an Architecture for Naval Sovereignty Operations Center</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Information &amp; Security: An International Journal</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">C2</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">C4ISR</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">DoD Architecture Framework</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Enterprise Architecture</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Environmental Protection</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Maritime Security</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Safety of Shipping</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Sea Surveillance</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Search and Rescue</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2005</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2005</style></date></pub-dates></dates><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">16</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">29-37</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">The article summarizes the results of a comprehensive study in support of the acquisition of an advanced C4ISR system for the Navy of the Republic of Bulgaria. A small interdisciplinary team in six months has designed the essential operational views of the architecture of a complex system that provides for maritime sovereignty operations and control of sea traffic. Main challenges, such as lack of development standards, adequate procedures, and doctrinal documents, are briefly described. The approach may be used by NATO and partner countries that envision joint development and acquisition of C2 and surveillance systems.</style></abstract></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Petya Ivanova</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Todor Tagarev</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Indicator Space Configuration for Early Warning of Violent Political Conflicts by Genetic Algorithms</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Annals of Operations Research</style></secondary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2000</style></year></dates><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">97</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">287-311</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Todor Tagarev</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Petya Ivanova</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Computational Intelligence in Multi-Source Data and Information Fusion</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Information &amp; Security: An International Journal</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Computational Intelligence</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Decision Support</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Forecasting</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Fuzzy Logic</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Genetic Algorithms</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">MSDF</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Neural Networks</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Pattern Recognition</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Soft Computing</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1999</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1999</style></date></pub-dates></dates><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">33-49</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">A model of MultiSource Information Fusion (MSIF) is proposed. It expands the application of proven MSDF techniques to diverse problem areas. This model allows for a unified framework clearly distinguishing processing functions from methods dealing with partial, uncertain, and imprecise information. The concept of computational intelligence provides for a holistic approach to design and integration of methods and algorithms for information fusion. We describe the application of computational intelligence to the fusion of data and information in two studies of early warning. The emphasis is on the power of soft-computing methods in designing early warning architectures pertinent to forecasting events in complex dynamical systems. </style></abstract></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>47</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Petya Ivanova</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Andrew Hunter</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Todor Tagarev</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Selection of Indicators for Early Warning of Violent Political Conflicts by Genetic Algorithms</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">International Conference on Transition to Advanced Market Institutions and Economies</style></secondary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1997</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">June/ 1997</style></date></pub-dates></dates><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Warsaw, Poland</style></pub-location><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>10</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Todor Tagarev</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Petya Ivanova</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Alfredo Moscardini</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Soft - Computing Methods for Early Warning of Violent Conflicts</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1996 AFCEA-Europe Sofia Seminar</style></secondary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1996</style></year></dates><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Sofia, Bulgaria</style></pub-location><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">44-51</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>10</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Petya Ivanova</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Feature Selection for Neural Network Forecaster by Genetic Algorithms</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">12th International Conference on Systems Science</style></secondary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1995</style></year></dates><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Wrozlaw, Poland</style></pub-location><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">3</style></volume><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language></record></records></xml>