<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><xml><records><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>13</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Klaus Niemeyer</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">European Conflict Analysis Project (ECAP)</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Information &amp; Security: An International Journal</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">armaments planning</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">confidence building</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">conflict modelling</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">European conflict</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">inter-national cooperation</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">military deterrence</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">military threat</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">NATO defense planning</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">nuclear armament</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">simulation</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">soft deterrence</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2021</style></year></dates><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">49</style></volume><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">&lt;p style=&quot;margin-left:19.85pt;&quot;&gt;With this report I am describing a US-German project that was worked on from 1983-1992 and which, from today&amp;rsquo;s point of view, seems to be worth revisiting in its essential points. The general goal of the project was to provide analytical support to decisions on the conventional defense capability of the NATO armed forces in Central Europe and the political-strategic debate on deploying medium-range nuclear missiles. An important aspect was the consideration of the paradoxical situation of a possible use of tactical-nuclear battlefield weapons with the associated escalation risks and the hoped-for deterrent effect in the strategic area. One of the foundations was the analytical use of quantitative simulation models and methods that were already relatively mature at the time for the reproducible calculation of a conventionally conducted attack of the Warsaw Pact with a likely focus on Central Europe. The main results were the type of cooperation and the structure of the analyses, the evidence of the usefulness of simulation models and, last but not least, the development of common goals, especially in phases of great upheaval such as the end of the Soviet system.&lt;/p&gt;</style></abstract></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Klaus Niemeyer</style></author></authors><subsidiary-authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">I&amp;S Monitor</style></author></subsidiary-authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Transformation: Military and Science</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Information &amp; Security: An International Journal</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">military</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">opera­tions analysis</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Scenarios</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">science</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">security system</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Transformation</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2009</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2009</style></date></pub-dates></dates><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">23</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">245-258</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Military and science have been complementary throughout history. Military capability has always been built on the advances in science and technology and at the same time it has provided motivation and goals for new technologies and applied science. If technologies and scientific approaches advance the military op­tions, strategies and tactics need to adjust and transform accordingly. In this sense transformation of military is triggered by the advances in science and technology. At the same time, specific scientific disciplines, such as operations analysis, pro­vides the techniques and tools for a pragmatic and effective transformation of mili­tary affairs.
</style></abstract><issue><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2</style></issue><section><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">245</style></section></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Klaus Niemeyer</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Velizar Shalamanov</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Todor Tagarev</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Institutionalizing Operations Analysis for Security and Defense in Bulgaria</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Connections: The Quarterly Journal </style></secondary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2008</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Summer 2008</style></date></pub-dates></dates><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">7</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">45–53</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><issue><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2</style></issue></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>6</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Klaus Niemeyer</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Todor Tagarev</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Velizar Shalamanov</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">SfP 981149 Operations Research Support to Force and Operations Planning in the New Security Environment </style></title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2008</style></year></dates><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Sofia: Artgraf, 2008</style></publisher><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Klaus Niemeyer</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Simulation of Critical Infrastructure</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Information &amp; Security : An International Journal</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Critical Infrastructure</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Gamma Methodology</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Modelling and Simulation</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Powersim</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">System Dynamics</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2005</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2005</style></date></pub-dates></dates><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">17</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">120-143</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">The paper presents a set of model prototypes developed to simulate the most critical areas of a highly-developed region in social, economic, technical and informational terms. The models were developed inspired by the fact that the highly integrated information infrastructure creates risks of failure and intrusions with a possible consequence of total loss of vital resources, such as energy or traffic. The models are seen on three levels of abstraction and are programmed and executed with tools from System Dynamics. On the highest level of abstraction, the modelled region is described and calculated using system attributes and variables like pro¬ductivity, social pressure, satisfaction, etc. Different layers of social, informational and physical realities are defined. On the medium level of abstraction, critical areas of an advanced society are identified and calculated using variables that represent an entity in the reality and that, in general, have an empirical context. Identified critical areas for the first experiments with the model were the sectors of energy, communications, traffic, security, government, and defence. Applying a methodol¬ogy to identify value drivers and to visualise the interrelations of components in complex systems helped in developing the model inputs and descriptive factors. This approach was used together with a group of experts in each area. On a low level of abstraction, a model prototype was developed using variables that in gen¬eral can be measured and quantified based on real-life empirical sources. The latter approach is very complex and resource-intensive and requires detailed insight and knowledge. The first application of the models was related to an exercise that demonstrates the risks of software attacks in information networks and the possible consequences for other sensitive areas. Sensitivity analyses with the models showed that the threat of intrusion into the information networks with the consequence of loss of vital resources is likely to be overestimated in comparison to the threat of a direct attack on the relevant vital sectors.</style></abstract></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Klaus Niemeyer</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Simulation of Critical Infrastructures</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Information &amp; Security: An International Journal </style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Critical Infrastructure</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Gamma Methodology</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Modelling and Simulation</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Powersim</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">System Dynamics</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2005</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2005</style></date></pub-dates></dates><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">17</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">120–143</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">The paper presents a set of model prototypes developed to simulate the most critical areas of a highly-developed region in social, economic, technical and informational terms. The models were developed inspired by the fact that the highly integrated information infrastructure creates risks of failure and intrusions with a possible consequence of total loss of vital resources, such as energy or traffic. The models are seen on three levels of abstraction and are programmed and executed with tools from System Dynamics. On the highest level of abstraction, the modelled region is described and calculated using system attributes and variables like productivity, social pressure, satisfaction, etc. Different layers of social, informational and physical realities are defined. On the medium level of abstraction, critical areas of an advanced society are identified and calculated using variables that represent an entity in the reality and that, in general, have an empirical context. Identified critical areas for the first experiments with the model were the sectors of energy, communications, traffic, security, government, and defence. Applying a methodology to identify value drivers and to visualise the interrelations of components in complex systems helped in developing the model inputs and descriptive factors. This approach was used together with a group of experts in each area. On a low level of abstraction, a model prototype was developed using variables that in general can be measured and quantified based on real-life empirical sources. The latter approach is very complex and resource-intensive and requires detailed insight and knowledge. The first application of the models was related to an exercise that demonstrates the risks of software attacks in information networks and the possible consequences for other sensitive areas. Sensitivity analyses with the models showed that the threat of intrusion into the information networks with the consequence of loss of vital resources is likely to be overestimated in comparison to the threat of a direct attack on the relevant vital sectors.</style></abstract></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Klaus Niemeyer</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Modeling and Simulation in Defense</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Information &amp; Security: An International Journal</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">acquisition</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Decision-making.</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">defence planning</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Evolution of modelling</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Modelling</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Operational planning</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">simulation</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Training and Exercises</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2003</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2003</style></date></pub-dates></dates><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">12</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">19-42</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Modelling and simulation are essential tools in defence planning, development and acquisition of systems, training and exercises, and operational planning throughout NATO and nations. In the article a contribution to a theoretical approach to the technology is provided, with discussion of definitions and characteristics, such as purpose of a model, reduction of complexity, and representation of real entities or systems. On the other hand, the defence applications are different in many aspects, e.g. objectives, time horizon, scenarios, data requirements, or reaction requirements, which leads to different utility of the model categories. Specific issues in modelling of the defence system are discussed, such as the military hierarchical structure, functional areas, operational phases, planning situations, and the decision cycle.</style></abstract><issue><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1</style></issue><section><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">019</style></section></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>27</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Klaus Niemeyer</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Modell des Verkehrssystems einer Region für die Simulation von kritischen Störungen mit einer geringen Abstraktion</style></title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2002</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2002</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">NOA-TB-6</style></number><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>27</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Klaus Niemeyer</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Modell wichtiger Branchen einer Region für die Simulation von kritischen Störungen mit einer mittleren Abstraktion</style></title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2002</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2002</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">NOA-TB-7</style></number><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>27</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Klaus Niemeyer</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Interaktive Simulationen zum Krisenmanagement</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Krisenproblematik</style></secondary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2001</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2001</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">NOA-TB-5</style></number><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>27</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Klaus Niemeyer</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Modell Ausgewählter Branchen zur Simulation von kritischen Störungen</style></title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2000</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2000</style></date></pub-dates></dates><number><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">NOA-TB-1</style></number><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>27</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Klaus Niemeyer</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">JOSIM- Joint Simulation US/UK/GE-USSR</style></title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1993</style></year></dates><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>5</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Klaus Niemeyer</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">A Note on Joint NATO/WP Gaming: No Longer a Utopian Proposal?</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Military Stability</style></secondary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1990</style></year></dates><urls><web-urls><url><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">https://www.researchgate.net/publication/284644336_A_NOTE_ON_JOINT_NATOWP_GAMING_NO_LONGER_A_UTOPIAN_PROPOSAL</style></url></web-urls></urls><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Baden-Baden: Nomos Verlag</style></publisher><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>27</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Klaus Niemeyer</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Preparing Defense Decisions by Battle Simulation and War Gaming</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Niemeyer Operations Analysis, </style></secondary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1989</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">October 1989</style></date></pub-dates></dates><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>5</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Klaus Niemeyer</style></author></authors><secondary-authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Ingolf Stahl</style></author></secondary-authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">A Contribution to the Typology of Games</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Operational Gaming</style></secondary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1983</style></year></dates><publisher><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Pergamon Press</style></publisher><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">41-52</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>27</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Klaus Niemeyer</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Critical Arguments on the Follow On Forces Attack (FOFA)</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Project: OR Support to Force and Operations Planning</style></secondary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1983</style></year></dates><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language></record></records></xml>