<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><xml><records><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Todor Tagarev</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Petya Ivanova</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Analytical support to foresighting EU roles as a Global Security Actor</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Information &amp; Security: An International Journal</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Alternative futures</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">context scenario</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">participatory foresight</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">scenario design</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Security foresight</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Uncertainty</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2013</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2013</style></date></pub-dates></dates><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">29</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">21-33</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Making decisions on major investments, including investments in security research, requires good grasp of the future, which by definition is uncertain. This paper presents the analytical process, methods, and tools, including the DSTO Scenario Analysis Tool Suite, used in the elaboration and selection of a set of context scenarios and possible new roles for EU as a global actor based on the wider Petersberg tasks. Results of this exploratory process within the FP7 FOCUS project are intended to derive suggestions for the EU’s security research planning. The conclusion emphasises the critical importance of providing rigorous analytical support, in particular when security foresight involves subject matter experts that are not part of a dedicated research team.</style></abstract><issue><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1</style></issue><section><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">21</style></section></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="7.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>17</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Uwe Nelrich</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Towards Europe 2035: In Search of the Archimedean Screw. FOCUS in Perspective</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Information &amp; Security: An International Journal</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Alternative futures</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">context scenarios</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">global trends</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">institutional Europe</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">peer countries</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Security foresight</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2013</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2013</style></date></pub-dates></dates><volume><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">29</style></volume><pages><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">161-183</style></pages><language><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eng</style></language><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">&lt;p&gt;Approaches and results from the FOCUS project centred on the planning of security research in the 2035 time frame to support foresighted EU security missions. In a follow-up, they could be carried further to help provide a framework for analyzing long-term trends and dynamic interactions in a global environment undergoing tectonic changes, reaching beyond the FOCUS mission to explore new contexts of civil security research in support of possible future EU mission scenarios. European developments are in large part driven by challenging global developments, reaching beyond external risks and threats to which the EU needs to respond. This article thus explores the complementarity of the FOCUS framework and the concurrent fifth NIC Report &amp;ldquo;Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds&amp;rdquo; of the US National Intelligence Council (NIC) in search of a framework for assessing the impact of global dynamics on the inner dynamics of global players, with the EU as a special case.&lt;/p&gt;</style></abstract><issue><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2</style></issue><section><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">161</style></section></record></records></xml>